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Lake Effect Snow Warnings are in effect for some counties in Western New York as
early as Wednesday night and will last until Sunday.

BUFFALO, NEW YORK — A significant lake effect snow event is expected later this
week and over the weekend for parts of Western New York.

A Lake Effect Snow Warning is in effect for Cattaraugus, Wyoming, and Chautauqua
counties beginning at 7 p.m. Wednesday and lasting until 10 p.m. Thursday. A Lake
Effect Snow Warning is also in effect for southern Erie County beginning at 7 p.m.
Wednesday and lasting until 1 a.m. Saturday. Northern Erie County and Genesee
County are also under a Lake Effect Snow Warning, which is in effect from 7 p.m.
Thursday to 1 p.m. Sunday.

From Friday to Sunday, Niagara County is under a Winter Storm Watch. Prior to the
onset of winter storm conditions, this watch will most likely become some kind of
winter weather alert.

Multiple heavy lake effect snow bands could form as early as Wednesday evening
and last until Sunday evening. It’s not impossible for two to three feet of snow to fall
during this time period, causing significant travel disruptions. The Buffalo
metropolitan area is included.

By the end of the week, a favourable weather pattern will form, potentially resulting
in a prolonged period of cold air over a warm Lake Erie. The lake is currently quite
warm, having recently tied a record warm temperature for the date Tuesday of 53
degrees. The temperature difference between the warm lake and cold air, combined
with a favourable wind direction aided by several systems passing to the north of
Buffalo, could lead to the development of several bands of lake effect snow showers
between Thursday and Sunday.

This lake effect event will begin across the Southern Tier on Wednesday night, with
the region receiving an additional 5 to 10 inches of snow before Thursday night.

A more favourable wind direction will then settle in over the lake Thursday night,
allowing a lake effect snow band to form and travel north to Buffalo. This is looking
more like a classic lake effect, with a band of very heavy snow falling at rates of two
to three inches per hour Friday through Sunday. With such high snowfall rates, travel
conditions could become extremely hazardous.

By Friday night, snow accumulations will vary greatly depending on where the band
forms, but towns throughout the greater Buffalo area and southern Erie County
could receive one to two feet of snow. Then, on Saturday, this lake effect band will
begin to lift north of the city, into northern Erie County, Niagara Falls, and NiagaraCounty. Saturday will be the snowiest day for areas north of the city, with up to a
foot of snow possible by the end of the day.

Finally, as the weekend progresses, this event will begin to shift south across Buffalo
and the South towns, potentially dumping another foot of snow by Sunday evening.

From Wednesday night to Sunday evening, here are the Western New York event
snow totals:

Southern Tier: 5 to 10 inches of snow fell across central and southern Chautauqua
and Cattaraugus counties Wednesday night and Thursday, with the majority falling
Wednesday night and Thursday. Allegany County will receive 3 to 6 inches of snow
Wednesday and Thursday, with little effect on the weekend lake effect event. The
lakefront area of Chautauqua County and the northern tip, as well as northern
Cattaraugus County, could receive 12 to 16 inches of snow, with the possibility of up
to 20 inches.

Southern Erie County: If the band of lake effect snow this weekend stays south, this
could be the event’s focal point. There will be 2 to 5 inches of snow on Wednesday
and Thursday morning, with the most snow falling on Friday and Sunday. This area
could get up to 24 inches of snow or more.

Buffalo: If the band sets up farther north late Thursday night and into Friday, the city
could be the target of this event. Having said that, if the lake effect band oscillates
Friday through Sunday, the city will be the midpoint. Snow totals in and around the
city will most likely exceed a foot, if not exceed two feet. As of today, the city
received between 20 and 24 inches of snow.

Wyoming County: Snow totals will decrease from west to east across the county,
with 12 to 16 inches on average, with up to 20 inches in the far west.

Northern Erie County: The lake effect band is likely to be just out of reach here,
making forecasting difficult. Still, a range of 10 to 20 inches for northern Erie County
is possible, with higher totals closer to Buffalo.

Genesee County: Similar to Wyoming County, snow totals will now decrease from
west to east across the county, with 10 to 16 inches on average, with up to 20 inches
in the far western portion.

Niagara and Orleans Counties: If this lake effect band continues to migrate north
Saturday, as many computer models predict, this region could receive 10 to 14
inches of snow. More likely, snow showers will just clip this region, bringing 8 to 12
inches at most, more likely 4 to 8 inches if the band does not extend that far north.